Sentinel Minutes

″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 17:16:08 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US seized an Iranian cargo ship while enforcing its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the blockade ends.

Will there still be ongoing hostilities between the US and Iran on November 3, 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 20% (5% to 40%) chance.
Will the Democrats take the Senate in the US midterms? Our forecasters believe there's a 41% (10% to 63%) probability.
Will enough US states join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact for it to reach 270 Electoral College votes by November 7, 2028? Our forecasters think there's a 12.5% (10% to 20%) chance.
- If so, and conditional on the Supreme Court ruling on its constitutionality, will the Supreme Court rule in favour of the Compact? Our forecasters believe there's a 35% (10% to 57%) probability.
- If the Compact gets to the 270 threshold and stands before November 7, 2028, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? Our forecasters provide a 2% (0.5% to 7%) estimate.
  - If it does not, what is the probability of a US civil war by 2030? [...]

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Outline:

(00:17) Executive summary

(03:50) Geopolitics

(03:53) Middle East

(06:34) The Americas

(06:37) The United States

(08:55) The Rest of the Americas

(09:33) Asia

(10:08) Africa

(10:23) Economy

(12:01) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:
April 20th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-seizes-iranian-cargo-ship-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 17:12:32 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Iran and the US failed to reach an agreement, and the US is now effectively blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. A fragile ceasefire between the two countries officially remains in place.

What is the chance that the US will still be conducting a naval blockade of Iran on June 1 2026? Forecasters think there's a 28% (15% to 55%) chance.
What is the chance that the IRGC will attack a US Navy vessel in the Gulf of Oman, Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf before June 1 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 50% (40% to 60%) probability.
What is the chance that Trump will no longer be in office (permanently) before December 2026? Forecasters think there's a 6.7% (4% to 16%) chance.
Will Israel conduct fewer than 30 airstrikes against Hezbollah north of the Litani River in Lebanon during the month of June? Forecasters assign a 65% (45% to 80%) probability to this outcome.

Technology and AI: Anthropic announced that it has developed a new model, Claude Mythos, but it considers the model to be sufficiently dangerous that it has limited access to the model to large tech and [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:45) Geopolitics

(02:48) Middle East

(06:18) Europe

(07:45) The Americas

(07:48) The United States

(09:42) The Rest of the Americas

(10:01) Asia

(10:14) Economy

(11:17) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:54) Nature and climate

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First published:
April 13th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-to-blockade-iranian-ports-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟡 Trump threatens Iranian power and desalination plants, aviators from downed F-15E rescued, Claude Code leak, updated ASI timelines || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 18:03:48 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to bomb power and desalination plants in Iran if they do not agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after indicating that he’d be willing to walk away from the war without its reopening earlier in the week. Pakistan submitted a fresh ceasefire proposal to both parties.

Will the US and Israel end hostilities against Iran by April 21, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 20% (8% to 42%) probability.
Will the US place more than 1,000 troops on the ground in Iran before July 2026? We think there's a 39% (20% to 55%) chance.
- If so, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate estimate is August 12 2026 (80% CI: May 24 2026 - June 3 2030).
- If not, when will the US end hostilities with Iran? Our aggregate is May 30 2026 (80% CI: April 20 2026 - Sept 13 2027).
Will Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party win the Hungarian parliamentary election? We think there's a 44% (35% to 60%) chance.

Technology and AI: The authors of AI 2027 updated their forecasts. Anthropic accidentally leaked the source code to Claude Code.

[...]

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Outline:

(00:24) Executive summary

(03:36) Geopolitics

(03:39) Middle East

(08:22) Europe

(09:52) The Americas

(10:41) Asia

(10:55) Economy

(11:56) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:26) Biorisk

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First published:
April 6th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-iranian-power-and

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟡 Iranian steel and nuclear plants bombed, Houthi attacks begin, AI solves open problem in mathematics || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 17:25:53 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Israel attacked a number of steel and nuclear sites in Iran. The Iran-backed Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the beginning of the Iran War. US Marines and Special Operations Forces have arrived in the Middle East, amid increasing discussion of the potential deployment of US combat forces in Iran.

Will the Houthis attack or seize at least one ship before May 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 64% (50% to 77%) chance.
Will the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by the end of 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 25% (18% to 30%) probability of a government being in power that does not include the IRGC.
Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 66% (55% to 80%) chance.

Technology and AI: Epoch announced that one of its FrontierMath open problems was solved for the first time, by GPT-5.4 Pro. A federal judge temporarily halted the Pentagon's designation of Anthropic as a supply-chain risk.

Will AI have solved at least 1 problem that qualifies as a “solid result” in Epoch's FrontierMath: Open Problems collection [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Middle East

(08:03) Europe

(09:05) Asia

(09:55) The Americas

(10:21) Economy

(14:11) Technology and artificial intelligence

(16:19) Biorisk

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First published:
March 30th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iranian-steel-and-nuclear-plants

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟡 Oil and gas facilities attacked in the Middle East, another US Marine unit deploying to the Middle East, desalination plants threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 18:13:36 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: More oil and gas facilities in the Middle East were targeted in Israeli and Iranian attacks. Another US Marine unit is being deployed to the Middle East. Trump threatened to destroy Iran's power infrastructure, and Iran threatened to retaliate against critical sites including desalination plants; Trump has backed down for now and says US-Iran talks are ongoing.

Will the US place 1,000 or more boots on the ground in Iran before July 2026? Our forecasters think there's a 37% chance (14% to 55%).
Will the US place >10,000 boots on the ground before July? Our forecasters think there's a 13.5% probability (4% to 27%).

Technology and AI: An AI agent at Meta reportedly went rogue recently, exposing sensitive data to those who should not have had access. An AI security researcher says that there have been other “loss of control” incidents over the past year.

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026? Our forecasters believe there's a 5% chance (3% to 7%).

Economy: The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly closed for over three weeks, and several more weeks of [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:46) Geopolitics

(02:49) Middle East

(07:44) Asia

(08:09) The Americas

(09:29) Europe

(09:45) Economy

(12:40) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:
March 23rd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/oil-and-gas-facilities-attacked-in

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟡 Trump threatens NATO, US bombs Kharg Island in Iran, US Marine unit deploying to Middle East || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 18:29:42 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US bombed Kharg Island, home to Iran's main oil terminal, but spared its oil facilities. A US Marine Expeditionary Unit is being sent from Japan to the Middle East. Trump said that NATO faces a “very bad future” if its members don’t send ships to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Will the US attempt to seize or carry out a major strike on the oil infrastructure on Kharg Island before April 15, 2026? Our forecasters give this a 42% (20% to 75%) chance,
Will 10 or more desalination plants in the Middle East be attacked from March 16 to April 15, 2026? Our forecasters assign a 11% (5% to 20%) probability of this happening.
When will the US cease major military operations against Iran's territory along with air and naval assets? Our forecasters’ aggregate point estimate is April 19 (March 28 to May 10).

Technology and AI: Anthropic is suing the Pentagon for designating the company a supply-chain risk, with Microsoft filing an amicus brief in support of Anthropic's case. A wide range of voices, including Yoshua Bengio, Steve Bannon and Susan Rice, signed the Pro-Human AI Declaration, with polling [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Middle East

(09:52) Asia

(10:10) Europe

(10:54) The Americas

(12:18) Economy

(14:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:
March 16th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-nato-us-bombs-kharg

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟡 Iran War continues, Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sharp drop in Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan, Alibaba AI agent mystery || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #10/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 18:38:45 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The Iran War continues, with the US and Israel continuing to strike targets in Iran and Iran continuing to launch drone and missile attacks. Iran is launching decreasing numbers of missiles over time.

Will the US place at least 1,000 US troops in Iran before May? Our forecasting team gives this a 21% (7% to 38%) chance.
Will there be more than 100 combined US and Israeli deaths before July? Forecasters think there's a 38% (15% to 60%) chance.
Will weekly shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to at least 75% of pre-war levels before April and before May? Our forecasters think there's a 39% (20% to 58%) probability before April, and a 61% (50% to 75%) chance before May.
What will be the maximum Brent crude oil price before April and before May? Forecasters estimated maxima of $135 ($110 to $150) and $143 ($112 to $175) respectively.
Will the month of April see no airspace closures outside Iran that are related to the Iran War? Forecasters think there's a 39% (30% to 55%) chance of this happening.

And: Trump continues to hint that he’d like to see [...]

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Outline:

(00:23) Executive summary

(03:18) Geopolitics

(03:21) Middle East

(06:52) Asia

(08:51) Europe

(09:19) The Americas

(10:08) Economy

(13:00) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:
March 9th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-war-continues-strait-of-hormuz

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟡 US and Israel strike Iran, Iran retaliates against US allies, Anthropic designated a supply chain risk || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #9/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 15:20:28 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US and Israel attacked Iran and killed Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated by striking US bases and allied countries in the region. Also, an arms sale to Taiwan has been paused by the US to ensure that Trump's April visit to Beijing goes smoothly.

Will Iran's regime fall by the end of 2026? Forecasters assign a 45% (32% to 70%) probability thereof.
Will there be >50 US fatalities (civilian or uniformed) anywhere in the world linked to the conflict in Iran or attributed to Iran or its proxies by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (35% to 60%) chance.
Will there be >100 Israeli fatalities (civilian or uniformed) linked to the conflict in Iran by the end of 2026? The team believes there's a 58% (45% to 70%) probability.
Will Israel's airspace reopen before April 2026? With Israeli authorities saying they may very gradually reopen their airspace over the next week, most forecasters are now at >95% here.
Will the Houthis seize or sink at least one ship before May 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 42% (20% to 68%) chance.

Technology and AI: Anthropic was designated a [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:02) Geopolitics

(03:05) Middle East

(07:35) Asia

(08:11) Latin America

(08:31) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:
March 2nd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-and-israel-strike-iran-iran-retaliates

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟩 US buildup in Middle East continues, Russian vessel en route to Cuba, AI time horizons lengthen | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #8/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 18:49:20 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continued to move military assets to the Middle East and Europe. A Russian tanker believed to be carrying oil is on its way to Cuba, in potential violation of a US embargo. There is unrest in Mexico after a cartel leader was killed.

Will the US strike Iran by March 8, the end of March, or the end of June? Forecasters provide estimates of 38% (25% to 51%), 66% (55% to 75%) and 79% (65% to 90%), respectively.
Conditional on this happening by the end of June, will there have been 30 consecutive days without any US strikes on Iran on November 3, 2026 (the date of the midterms)? Forecasters estimate a 78% (60% to 90%) chance.
Conditional on a strike by the end of June, will cyberattacks that the team believe were credibly attributed to Iran occur by the end of June and cumulatively lead to more than 10 estimated deaths? Forecasters give a 6.5% (2.0% to 15%) chance.
Will the US remove (either partially or completely) sanctions against Cuba by the end of 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 48% (31% to 67%) probability.
Will any oil [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:58) Geopolitics

(03:01) Middle East

(07:19) Europe

(08:13) Asia

(08:30) Africa

(08:46) Latin America

(09:55) Technology and artificial intelligence

(09:59) Capabilities

(12:13) Governance

(17:17) Economy

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First published:
February 23rd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-buildup-in-middle-east-continues

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟩 US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East, European nuclear deterrent discussed, pandemic preparedness deprioritized at NIAID | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #7/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 18:25:49 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump again expressed support for regime change in Iran and sent a second aircraft carrier group to the Middle East, but also said that nuclear talks will continue. Some European leaders are floating the idea of a common European nuclear deterrent, but Spain's PM is opposed to “nuclear rearmament”.

Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters give a 69% (58% to 90%) probability thereof. Will it strike Iran before July 2026? Forecasters think there's a 48% (40% to 55%) chance.
Will more than 10,000 people take part in protests in Tehran before February 20? Forecasters believe there's a 47% (35% to 58%) probability.

Technology and AI: Bernie Sanders reiterated that he plans to introduce federal legislation for a moratorium on data center construction. A Chinese AI startup trained its new model entirely on Huawei chips. Anthropic was valued at almost $380B.

Will a federal moratorium on data center construction become law before 2029? Forecasters give a 4% (2% to 7%) probability thereof.
Will a Chinese AI model enter the top 3 on Epoch's Capabilities Index by the end of 2026? Forecasters think there's a 12% (10% to 18%) [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:14) Geopolitics

(02:17) Middle East

(04:39) Europe

(06:58) Asia

(07:10) United States

(09:41) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:07) Economy

(13:22) Biorisk

(14:15) Nature and climate

(14:43) Miscellaneous

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First published:
February 16th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-sends-second-aircraft-carrier

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟩 Anthropic and OpenAI release new models, US-Iran talks continue, illegal biolab in the US, nuclear arms treaty expires | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #6/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 17:59:37 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: American and Iranian negotiators met for nuclear talks in Oman. No agreement was reached, but both sides said the talks will continue. A nuclear arms control treaty between the US and Russia expired.

Will Iran's current regime and the US reach any agreement around Iran's nuclear program before July 1, 2026? Forecasters believe there's a 17% (5.0% to 32%) probability thereof.
What is the chance that any of the US, China or Russia will start any negotiations towards a new nuclear arms treaty by the end of 2026? Forecasters estimate around even odds, 52% (40% to 65%).
What is the chance that a new country will acquire nuclear weapons by 2030? Forecasters give a 5.3% (1.0% to 15%) chance to this outcome.

Technology and AI: Anthropic and OpenAI released their most powerful models to date. Both companies said that the models were mostly built by AIs, and that some of their benchmarks that were designed to detect dangerous capabilities have been saturated. METR assessed GPT-5.2 (high) to be SOTA on its time horizon task suite.

Will METR assess any AI to have a time horizon of 100 hours by the [...]

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Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:10) Technology and artificial intelligence

(05:46) Geopolitics

(05:49) Middle East

(06:27) Europe

(07:30) Asia

(08:12) Biorisk

(09:11) Economy

(09:48) Nature and Climate

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First published:
February 9th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/anthropic-and-openai-release-new

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟩 AI social network Moltbook grows, US-Iran tensions simmer, Nipah pandemic unlikely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #5/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 18:13:29 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: The US continues to threaten Iran with military action if it doesn’t make a deal over its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, though Trump says that talks are ongoing. Cuba may run out of crude oil in 2-3 weeks.

Will the US strike Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 52% (40% to 70%). Will Ayatollah Khamenei cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a probability of 31% (17% to 60%).
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel cease to be the President of Cuba before April 2026? Forecasters think there is a 22% (10% to 51%) chance.

Technology and AI: Moltbook, a new social network for AI agents, has attracted a lot of human attention. A $100B Nvidia-OpenAI deal is unlikely to go ahead in its original form.

What's the probability that OpenAI and/or Anthropic collapses by the end of 2027? Forecasters estimate a 12% (8.0% to 20%) chance.

Biorisk: Airports in Asian countries, including Singapore and Hong Kong, are screening passengers for Nipah virus, following the infection of two nurses in India.

Will the World Health Organization declare the spread of Nipah virus [...]

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Outline:

(00:19) Executive summary

(02:27) Technology and artificial intelligence

(09:22) Geopolitics

(09:24) Middle East

(11:18) Europe

(13:18) The Americas

(13:21) Latin America

(16:06) North America

(20:22) Asia

(21:22) Africa

(21:43) Biorisk

(23:07) Economy

(25:08) Nature and climate

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First published:
February 2nd, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ai-social-network-moltbook-grows

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟩 Trump walks back Greenland threats, US sends warships to the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #4/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 18:35:43 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump backtracked on plans for the US to own Greenland and to impose tariffs on imports from some European countries that opposed an American takeover of Greenland, and he also ruled out using military force to take the territory. The US continued to move military assets into the Middle East, with Trump saying that military action against Iran is possible. The first trilateral peace talks between the US, Ukraine and Russia took place in the UAE, but they made little progress. Tensions between protesters and ICE remain high in Minneapolis.

Will the US carry out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 66% (50% to 78%) probability.
Will there be regime change in Iran by then? This would involve the IRGC no longer holding power. Forecasters estimate a 17% (10% to 24%) chance.
Will there be a ceasefire of any duration (covering land, sea and air) between Russia and Ukraine before April 2026? Forecasters estimate a 5.1% (4.0% to 7.0%) probability.
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act before March 2026? Forecasters estimate a 30% (5% to 65%) chance.

Technology and AI: Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis said [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:50) Geopolitics

(02:53) Europe

(05:38) Middle East

(08:33) The Americas

(08:36) Latin America

(09:09) North America

(14:51) Asia

(16:26) Africa

(16:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

(20:12) Economy

(22:15) Biorisk

(22:43) Nature and climate

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First published:
January 26th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-walks-back-greenland-threats

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟨 “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, “that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot” || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 18:59:26 GMT

Executive summary

Tech and AI: Emails and personal notes written by Greg Brockman that improve Elon Musk's position in his lawsuit against OpenAI and others were revealed during the lawsuit's discovery phase.

Forecasters think there's a 31% (15% to 40%) chance that Elon Musk will win at least $40 billion in his case against OpenAI.

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on imports from eight European countries that oppose US ownership of Greenland, and writes that he “no longer feel[s] an obligation to think purely of Peace”. Iran halted planned executions of protesters after threats of US intervention.

Forecasters think there's a 21% (9.0% to 40%) chance that an execution of an imprisoned Iranian protester occurs before March 2026, and a 34% (20% to 70%) that the US carries out a strike on Iranian territory before April 2026.

They also think there's a 8.6% (2% to 49%) that the Iranian regime falls before March, a 24% (12% to 67%) chance before July, and a 34% (18% to 70%) before 2027. This would have to involve the IRGC no longer holding power in the country. Forecasters are generally split, with most forecasters clustering [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:11) Geopolitics

(03:14) Europe

(07:44) Middle East

(11:58) The Americas

(12:01) Latin America

(13:25) United States

(15:00) Asia

(15:20) Africa

(15:47) Technology and artificial intelligence

(19:11) Economy

The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
January 19th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/i-no-longer-feel-an-obligation-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟩 Trump administration mulls strikes on Iran and says the US will own Greenland, DOJ launches investigation into Fed Chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #2/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 17:58:25 GMT

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump is seriously considering intervening militarily in Iran to assist anti-government protesters. He says that the US will “own” Greenland and that this can either be done “the easy way” or the “hard way”. And he says that the US will conduct strikes against drug cartels on Mexican soil.

Forecasters think there's a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.

They think there's a 23% chance (10% to 40%) that the US annexes, acquires or enters into a compact of free association with Greenland in 2026. Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 36.5% for the remainder of Trump's term.

They think there's a 2.5% chance (0.5% to 7%) that the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution, which can remove the sitting President, will be invoked [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(03:56) Geopolitics

(03:59) Middle East

(06:07) Europe

(09:42) The Americas

(09:45) Latin America

(13:33) United States

(16:24) Asia

(16:56) Africa

(17:03) Technology and artificial intelligence

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First published:
January 12th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟩 US attacks Venezuela and captures Maduro, threatens Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Denmark || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #1/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewater

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 17:53:19 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: The US struck targets in Venezuela and captured its former President Nicolás Maduro. Trump and others in his orbit also threatened to take over or called for military action in Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Greenland. Anti-government protests continue in Iran.
Tech and AI: xAI has come under fire, including from French ministers, after Grok AI reportedly produced child sexual abuse imagery that was shared on social media.

Forecasts:

Forecasters believe there's a 42% chance (10% to 75%) that the Islamic Republic of Iran will fall by the end of 2026, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) no longer having power.

Forecasters think there's a 36.5% chance (34% to 40%) that the US will annex, acquire or enter into a compact of free association with Greenland by January 20, 2029, up from 25% (12% to 40%) at the end of March 2025.

They believe there's a 67% chance (50% to 90%) that the US will strike a country in Latin America other than Venezuela in 2026.

They think there's a 43% chance that interim President Delcy Rodríguez will still be the de facto [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:33) Geopolitics

(02:36) Latin America

(09:35) Europe

(11:29) Middle East

(13:37) Asia

(14:09) Technology and artificial intelligence

---

First published:
January 5th, 2026

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-attacks-venezuela-and-captures

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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″🟩 Forecasts for drone attacks and AI time horizons; China holds military drills around Taiwan and imposes sanctions on US arms manufacturers || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #52/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 18:43:14 GMT

Executive summary

″🟩 AI unemployment and IPOs in 2026, EU funds Ukraine from its own pockets, US seizes Chinese-owned tanker || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #51/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 19:27:34 GMT

Executive summary

″🟩EU freezes Russian assets, US and Iran seize oil tankers, Trump restricts AI regulation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #50/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 15 Dec 2025 18:11:23 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: The EU indefinitely froze €210 billion of Russian assets. The US and Iran seized oil tankers off the coast of Venezuela and in the Gulf of Oman, respectively. Ukraine wants to join the EU before 2027.
- Forecasters estimate a 38% (25% to 55%) chance that the US will seize another oil tanker related to Venezuela by the end of January 2026, and a 70% (60% to 80%) probability that they will carry out a strike on Venezuelan land in the next three months.
- They believe there's a 32% (15% to 50%) probability that Ukraine will join the EU before 2030. Back in February, they gave this a 10% (5% to 25%) chance.
- They also think there's a 23% (15% to 30%) chance that the EU will use frozen Russian assets (either directly or as collateral) to fund Ukraine's defence by the end of January 2026.

Tech and AI: Trump signed an executive order aiming to restrict the ability of US states to regulate artificial intelligence. OpenAI launched GPT-5.2.
- And they estimate a 60% (35% to 75%) probability that the US will have federal or [...]

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Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:52) Geopolitics

(02:55) Europe

(06:06) Asia

(06:38) The Americas

(12:22) United States

(13:28) Middle East

(13:42) Africa

(13:59) Technology and artificial intelligence

(17:49) Economy

(18:12) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
December 15th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-freezes-russian-assets-us-and

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟩US signals diminished role in NATO, Russia-Ukraine talks falter, Hassett likely to become next Fed chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #49/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 18:33:59 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027.

Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of recursive self-improvement.
Economy: Rumours swirl that Kevin Hassett will be announced as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Trump singling him out as the potential pick.

Forecasts:

Considering the flurry of recent model releases from the likes of Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek, forecasters updated their estimates on which company they think will be ‘in the lead’ over the next year or so. They estimated the following relatively casual probabilities over who will top Epoch's Capabilities Index on December 31, 2026: Google: 42% (20% to 55%); OpenAI 35% (25% to 45%); Anthropic: 8% (5% to 30%); Others: 13% (8% to 25%).
Meanwhile, they think there's a 21% (10% to 35%) probability that a humanoid robot will be reported to have been used in combat by the end of 2026.
[...]

---

Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(02:30) Geopolitics

(02:33) Europe

(05:08) Asia

(07:06) Middle East

(07:27) The Americas

(08:46) United States

(10:22) Africa

(11:16) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:41) Economy

(14:31) Biorisk

(14:42) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
December 8th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-signals-diminished-role-in-nato

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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″🟩 Airspace closed over Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine talks continue, DeepSeek reaches gold IMO level || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #48/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 17:48:59 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue.

Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, and says it's getting harder to rule out that its models are crossing some dangerous thresholds. DeepSeek released a model that reached gold level in the International Mathematics Olympiad.

Forecasts:

Forecasters believe there's a 6.4% (5.0% to 10%) probability that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January 2026.
They think there's a 55% (30% to 71%) chance that the US military will attack Venezuelan territory by the end of 2025.
And they assign a 69% (40% to 81%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026.

Geopolitics

Europe

Talks about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, with US officials in discussions with both sides. US Army Secretary Dan [...]

---

Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(01:40) Geopolitics

(01:43) Europe

(02:37) The Americas

(02:40) Latin America

(04:03) United States

(05:42) Middle East

(07:09) Asia

(08:15) Africa

(08:59) Technology and artificial intelligence

(10:54) Biorisk

(11:01) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
December 1st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/airspace-closed-over-venezuela-russia

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

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″🟩 Ukraine peace plan, US continues activity around Venezuela, state AI regulation moratorium round 2 || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #47/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 19:12:49 GMT

Executive summary

We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week

Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue.
- Forecasters believe there's a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026.
- They estimate that there's a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026.

Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:45) Geopolitics

(02:48) Europe

(05:35) The Americas

(05:37) Latin America

(08:39) United States

(09:26) Middle East

(10:37) Asia

(10:46) Technology and artificial intelligence

(14:26) Economy

(15:29) Biorisks

---

First published:
November 24th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-peace-plan-us-continues-activity

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟩 Rising China-Japan tensions, Iran seizes oil tanker, AI-directed cyberattacks disrupted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #46/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 18:28:11 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.

Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it disrupted an AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign.
Economy: The President of the New York Federal Reserve convened an emergency meeting with top Wall Street dealers to discuss signs of stress in money markets.

Forecasts:

Forecasters estimate that there's a 61% (45% to 75%) chance that the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan will resume peace talks by the end of March 2026.
They think there's a 70% (50% to 90%) chance that the Houthis will refrain from attacking ships in the Red Sea through the end of March 2026.
They believe there's a 73% (50% to 90%) chance that the US will carry out an attack on Venezuelan territory before the end of 2025, and a 47% (20% to 70%) chance that Nicolás Maduro will still be [...]

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Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(01:51) Geopolitics

(01:54) Asia

(04:44) Middle East

(06:50) The Americas

(06:53) Latin America

(09:23) United States

(10:26) Africa

(10:37) Europe

(11:04) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:28) Economy

(14:20) Biorisks

(14:50) Climate

---

First published:
November 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/rising-china-japan-tensions-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟩 Iran drought warning, rebels agree to Sudan ceasefire, Trump tariffs threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 18:51:21 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: Iran's President warned that the capital Tehran may need to be evacuated within the next few months if severe water shortages don’t ease. The main rebel group in Sudan agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire, while a UN-backed monitor confirmed that famine is present in the Sudanese town of El Fasher.

Tech and AI: Google's Gemini 3 is likely to be widely deployed by the end of the year, and it may be state-of-the-art on some benchmarks.
Economy: The US Supreme Court hinted that it would rule against most of Trump's second-term tariffs.

Forecasts:

Forecasters estimate that there's a 25% chance (18% to 35%) that any form of ceasefire between Sudan's government and the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF) will be in place on January 1, 2026.
They think there's a 13% chance (6.0% to 25%) that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January.
And they believe there's a 71% chance (55% to 90%) that the Supreme Court will rule that Trump's use of a 1977 law to impose the majority of his second term tariffs was [...]

---

Outline:

(00:20) Executive summary

(01:45) Geopolitics

(01:47) Middle East

(06:02) Africa

(06:54) The Americas

(06:57) South America

(08:24) United States

(09:18) Europe

(09:39) Asia

(10:04) Technology and artificial intelligence

(12:39) Economy

---

First published:
November 10th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-drought-warning-rebels-agree

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟩 Trump threatens to send troops to Nigeria and denies Venezuela attack plans, China-US trade détente || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #44/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 18:21:58 GMT

Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan.

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: Trump threatened to send troops to Nigeria to combat Islamic rebels. He also ordered the immediate resumption of US nuclear weapons testing, and elsewhere denied that the US is on the verge of attacking Venezuela. Iran is carrying out more construction in and around a mountainous nuclear site. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the city of el-Fasher in Sudan.

Tech and AI: OpenAI plans to develop an automated research intern by September 2026, and a true AI researcher by March 2028. Its restructuring into a for-profit Public Benefit Company was approved by the Attorneys General of California and Delaware.
Economy: A one-year trade truce between China and the United States was agreed, covering tariffs and export controls.

Forecasts:

Forecasters now believe there's a 52% chance (range: 36% to 65%) that the US will carry out an airstrike on Venezuelan soil before December 2025, down from 61% last week.
They think there's a 2.2% chance (range: 1% to [...]

---

Outline:

(00:31) Executive summary

(02:22) Geopolitics

(02:25) The Americas

(02:28) South America

(04:40) United States

(06:08) Middle East

(09:04) Africa

(10:37) Europe

(11:07) Asia

(11:24) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:48) Economy

(15:19) Biorisk

---

First published:
November 3rd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-threatens-to-send-troops-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟩 Aircraft carrier ordered to the Venezuelan coast, chance of Trump 3rd term, bird flu spreading with fall migration || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #43/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, belikewater

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 17:14:01 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: The US ordered the world's largest warship to the Caribbean, close to Venezuela. The proposed meeting in Budapest between Trump and Putin was cancelled following disagreements. The US placed sanctions on two Russian oil companies.

Tech and AI: A letter advocating a prohibition on the development of superintelligence was signed by figures ranging from Geoffrey Hinton to Steve Bannon to Prince Harry.
Economy: Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on imports from Canada after Ontario aired an anti-protectionism ad featuring clips of Ronald Reagan.
Biorisk: The fall migration of wild birds is causing bird flu to spread rapidly in Europe, with the highest number of countries reporting early outbreaks for at least a decade, though there haven’t been as many total outbreaks as in 2022.

Forecasts:

Forecasters believe that there's a 6% chance (range: 1.5% to [...]

---

Outline:

(00:22) Executive summary

(02:06) Geopolitics

(02:09) The Americas

(02:12) South America

(06:20) United States

(09:00) Asia

(10:02) Middle East

(11:53) Africa

(12:25) Europe

(13:34) Technology and artificial intelligence

(16:34) Economy

(17:06) Biorisk

---

First published:
October 27th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/aircraft-carrier-ordered-to-the-venezuelan

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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″🟢 CIA authorized to operate in Venezuela, Trump walks back China tariff threat, Budapest to host US-Russia meeting on Ukraine || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #42/2025.” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 16:59:29 GMT

90% (86% to 92%) chance that former US National Security Advisor John Bolton will be convicted.

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: Trump authorized the CIA to carry out covert and lethal operations in Venezuela. Putin and Trump agreed to meet in Budapest for a fresh discussion on how to end the war in Ukraine. Zelensky tried but failed to secure Tomahawk missiles from the US.
Economy: Trump said that imposing an additional 100% tariff on China would not be workable. Two regional banks in the US disclosed issues with bad loans.

Tech and AI: The UK's internal security agency, MI5, warned of scenarios in which humans might lose oversight and control of AI.
Biorisk: We may be [...]

---

Outline:

(00:28) Executive summary

(02:34) Geopolitics

(02:37) Middle East

(05:09) Europe

(07:03) The Americas

(07:06) South America

(09:42) United States

(12:43) Asia

(14:34) Africa

(15:34) Technology and artificial intelligence

(18:14) Economy

(21:49) Biorisk

(23:54) Nature and climate

---

First published:
October 20th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/cia-authorized-to-operate-in-venezuela

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 17:43:03 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect in Gaza. The Trump administration rejected an offer from Maduro that would’ve allowed the US increased access to Venezuela's oil and gold resources and reduced Venezuela's ties to China and Russia.
Economy: Trump threatened to impose an extra 100% tariff on imports from China. The S&P 500 fell by 2.71% on Friday but partially rebounded on Monday morning.

Tech and AI: OpenAI's used subpoenas against advocacy orgs described by critics as overreaching and intimidating. Its deal with AMD resulted in the chipmaker's stock price soaring.

Forecasts:

Forecasters assigned a 55% probability (range: 40% to 70%) to there being fewer than 150 deaths in [...]

---

Outline:

(00:21) Executive summary

(02:40) Geopolitics

(02:43) Middle East

(05:44) The Americas

(05:47) South America

(07:42) United States

(09:38) Asia

(10:09) Africa

(10:28) Europe

(10:38) Technology and artificial intelligence

(13:02) Economy

(15:01) Biorisk

---

First published:
October 13th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-ceasefire-agreed-trump-threatens

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:

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“California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #40/2025” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 06 Oct 2025 18:06:30 GMT

Hamas agreed to some parts of a 20-point US peace plan. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil refineries.

Executive summary

“EU may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 17:10:28 GMT

More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: More drone sightings, EU still considering shooting down Russian jets next time, probability of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next year slightly rising.
US Politics: US government may face a shutdown, former FBI director indicted.
Artificial Intelligence: USG advisors against global governance of AI.
Climate and nature: Up to half of Prochlorococcus, a plankton at the bottom of the ocean food chain that produces about 5% of the planet's oxygen through photosynthesis, may die off if the climate significantly rises.

Forecaster estimates:

1.2% that [...]

---

Outline:

(00:29) Executive summary

(02:10) Geopolitics

(02:12) Europe

(05:13) United States

(07:35) The Rest of the Americas

(08:38) Middle East

(09:17) Asia

(09:45) Economy

(10:28) Artificial Intelligence

(10:31) Policy

(14:08) Chips, Datacenters, and Investments

(14:39) Evals and Research

(16:05) Other AI

(17:26) Other technological risks

(18:03) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
September 29th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/eu-may-shoot-down-russian-jets-next

---

Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

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″🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #38/2025″ by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 19:58:31 GMT

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: Russian jets entered Estonia's airspace. An agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia could bring Saudi Arabia under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella.
US Politics: A US comedian's show was suspended after the FCC chair exerted pressure on his network and on companies that own local TV stations. The Trump administration plans to announce actions targeting left-wing groups.
Tech and AI: Open-source AIs were used to design variants of a simple virus genome, eliminating the need for most lab work.

Economy: The US Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, in line with expectations. The Shiller PE ratio is 39.95, the highest since the dotcom bubble.

Forecaster estimates:

What is the chance that Maduro will [...]

---

Outline:

(00:19) Executive summary

(02:48) Geopolitics

(02:51) Europe

(05:28) United States

(09:46) The Rest of the Americas

(12:48) Middle East and Asia

(12:51) Pakistan-Saudi Arabia agreement

(13:58) Lebanon and Syria

(14:06) Iran

(14:19) Israel and Gaza

(14:51) Indian subcontinent

(15:38) Asia-Pacific

(16:25) Africa

(17:03) Economy

(18:04) Artificial Intelligence

(23:12) Other technology

(24:51) Biorisks

(25:55) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
September 22nd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-comedians-show-suspended-after

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

---

Images from the article:

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″🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT

OpenAI and Oracle signed a $300B deal, which would lead to Oracle displacing Microsoft to become OpenAI's largest compute provider; the deal lifted Oracle's stock price.

Executive summary

Top items:

Geopolitics: Multiple Russian drones entered Poland's airspace, some of which were shot down. Forecasters examined the probability of a Russian incursion by air, land or sea that (accidentally or deliberately) results in the death of a citizen of a NATO country within the next 6 months. Israel carried out an airstrike on Qatar, killing multiple members of Hamas’ political leadership. The US condemned the strike.
US Politics: A close Trump ally, conservative activist Charlie Kirk, was assassinated in the US state of Utah, leading to predictions of a rise in [...]

---

Outline:

(00:32) Executive summary

(02:16) Geopolitics

(02:19) Europe

(05:09) Middle East

(06:18) The Americas

(06:21) The United States

(08:06) Venezuela

(09:27) Brazil

(09:54) Asia-Pacific

(11:20) Technology and artificial intelligence

(15:38) Economy

---

First published:
September 15th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/russian-drones-shot-down-over-poland

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Executive Summary

Economy: Weak August US jobs numbers make a September Fed rate cut look more likely. Bond markets are showing signs of stress, and gold prices continue to rise, reflecting growing risks.
Geopolitics: French President Macron said 26 nations are ready to provide postwar security guarantees to Ukraine. China hosted foreign leaders for talks on economic cooperation and held a large military parade.
Biorisk: A large chikungunya outbreak continues to grow in China.
Artificial Intelligence: OpenAI faces significant criticism from the attorneys general of California and Delaware over the recent cases of ChatGPT-associated suicide and murder-suicide.

Forecastshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/possible-postwar-ukraine-security

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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Images from the article:
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“Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2025.” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 01 Sep 2025 18:17:05 GMT

43% probability that the Houthis will sink at least one ship between now and the end of September.

Executive summary
Top items:

Geopolitics: Israeli strike on Yemen kills Houthi prime minister and several cabinet members.

Biorisk: New World screwworm spreading northward through the Americas. RFK Jr. fired the CDC director, replacing her with a Thiel protégé.

Artificial Intelligence: Anthropic identifies AI-driven cyberattacks. $200M pro-AI lobbying group started by OpenAI President and a16z.

Economy: Trump attempted to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over irregularities in her real estate filings, raising the prospect of reduced Fed independence in the future.
Forecaster estimates:

42% probability that the Supreme Court upholds at least three quarters of Trump's tariffs by [...]

---
Outline:
(00:28) Executive summary
(01:53) Geopolitics
(01:56) Middle East
(04:47) Europe
(05:43) United States
(07:51) The Rest of the Americas
(08:50) Asia
(09:42) Africa
(10:31) Economy
(15:16) Artificial Intelligence
(19:02) Biorisks
(23:17) Other

---

First published:
September 1st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthi-pm-and-cabinet-killed-rfk

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, anpaure

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 17:18:05 GMT

22% chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between now and the end of 2025.

Executive summary
Top items:

Famine: The UN declared a famine in Gaza.

Geopolitics: Putin clarifies Russia's stringent terms for a ceasefire. The US is moving Navy ships with 2.2K Marines to waters off the coast of Venezuela.

Tech and AI: DeepSeek released its V3.1 model, a more capable open-source model.

Biorisk: The American Academy of Pediatrics’ recommendations for Covid vaccines for children now differ from those of the CDC; recommendations that diverge from the CDC's official list are not shielded from liability.
Forecaster estimates:

What is the chance that 10,000 people in Gaza will die of hunger between [...]

---
Outline:
(00:31) Executive summary
(02:07) Geopolitics
(02:09) Europe
(05:08) Middle East
(05:11) Gaza
(08:06) Iran
(08:29) Yemen
(08:40) United States
(12:00) The Rest of the Americas
(13:58) Asia
(14:00) South Asia
(14:29) East Asia
(16:52) Africa
(17:46) Artificial Intelligence
(20:34) Economy
(21:46) Other technology
(22:15) Biorisks
(22:57) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
August 25th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/un-famine-declaration-us-moving-22k

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 15:05:18 GMT

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.

Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”

And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/a8f8dd54-e796-4d55-af82-882c3a2f7dd6

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Executive summary

Geopolitics: Trump and Putin met in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Forecasters’ estimate of the chance of a ceasefire by October dropped from 27% pre-summit to 9%.

Biorisks: The chikungunya virus continues to spread, including in France and the UK.

Tech and AI: Meta's policies explicitly allowed its AI chatbots to “engage a child in conversations that are romantic or sensual.”

And more: Three soldiers were killed and four others injured in a drone attack by FARC dissidents on the Colombian military.
We are bottlenecked on distribution, so we’d appreciate it if you shared our work with your networks. [...]

---
Outline:
(00:29) Executive summary
(01:30) Geopolitics
(01:33) Trump/Putin summit in Alaska
(05:46) Middle East
(06:57) Europe
(07:44) United States
(09:11) Elsewhere in the Americas
(09:21) Asia
(10:19) Africa
(10:53) Artificial Intelligence
(13:02) Biorisk

---

First published:
August 18th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-putin-talks-end-with-no-ceasefire

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Israel preparing to take over Gaza City, ceasefire in Ukraine unlikely to happen soon, Trump deploying National Guard in DC, GPT-5 released | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2025” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 18:10:32 GMT

Status: green

Executive summary
Key items this week are:

Economy and trade: Trump's new tariff rates for most of the world took effect on August 7. Trump partially followed through on threats of secondary tariffs on Russia's trading partners if there wasn’t a stop to the Ukraine war by last Friday, by placing an additional 25% tariff on India, which has been buying Russian oil, starting near the end of this month.

Geopolitics: Putin and US envoy Witkoff met in Moscow to discuss conditions for a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump and Putin plan to meet in Alaska on August 15 to discuss a path towards a ceasefire, without Ukraine. Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to take over Gaza City. [...]

---
Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(02:33) Biorisk
(04:09) Geopolitics
(04:12) Russia/Ukraine
(07:48) Middle East
(07:51) Israel and Gaza
(09:22) Iran
(11:26) United States
(14:53) Asia-Pacific
(15:59) Europe and the Caucasus
(16:27) Africa
(16:58) Tech and AI
(21:10) Economy
(21:12) Tariffs
(22:30) US housing market
(23:41) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
August 11th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-preparing-to-take-over-gaza

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, US fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 17:54:32 GMT

Executive summary
Key items this week are:

Economy and trade: Trump announced new tariffs. US GDP growth is driven by AI capex spending while labor slumps. In response to an unfavorable labor report, Trump fired the commissioner of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Geopolitics: UK, France and Canada announced their intention to recognize a Palestinian state. Hunger is widespread in Gaza and might meet the technical definition of famine later this year, which could serve as a Schelling point for change.

Biorisks: Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and Chikungunya are spreading. A paper on an AI pipeline for AI-aided discovery of antivirals provides hope for a favorable defense/offense balance change for AI.

AI: Mark Zuckerberg wrote about personal superintelligence [...]

---
Outline:
(00:17) Executive summary
(03:05) Economy
(06:47) Geopolitics
(06:50) Middle East
(12:46) United States
(15:24) Asia-Pacific
(17:31) Europe
(19:43) Africa
(20:13) Biorisk
(21:00) Artificial Intelligence
(21:03) Meta and Mark
(23:36) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
August 4th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/gaza-hunger-us-gdp-growth-driven

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟢 Thailand v. Cambodia clashes erupted and resolved, White House AI Action Plan released, Anthropic faces billion-dollar lawsuit | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2025″ by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 16:53:48 GMT

Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached...

Executive summary
Key items this week are:

Geopolitical risks: Thailand and Cambodia exchanged fire, and Thailand sent some F-16s into Cambodia, but a ceasefire has already been reached. Israel is being accused of causing mass starvation in Gaza by the WHO and others. Zelensky faced his first large-scale domestic protests over a law weakening the independence of anti-corruption bodies.

Economy and trade: The US and the EU reached a trade deal that would tariff EU goods coming into America at 15%. A similar agreement was reached between the US and Japan, which will now also face 15% tariffs on its goods [...]

---
Outline:
(00:27) Executive summary
(02:28) Geopolitics
(02:31) Asia
(02:34) Thailand and Cambodia
(04:15) China and Taiwan
(05:51) Singapore
(06:12) Europe
(09:46) United States
(11:40) Africa
(12:01) Middle East
(12:03) Iran
(13:21) Gaza
(14:09) Syria
(14:44) Afghanistan
(15:06) Economy
(16:35) AI and Technology
(24:41) Biorisks
(26:01) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
July 28th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/thailand-v-cambodia-clashes-erupted

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟢 Taiwan defense rehearsals, Israel-Syria ceasefire, IMO Gold at OpenAI | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 16:42:04 GMT

Executive summary
Taiwan conducted its largest-ever defense drills to prepare for a possible Chinese invasion, while the US has been pushing Japan and Australia to clarify whether they would get involved in a US-China war over Taiwan. Forecasters estimated the probability of a Chinese invasion by 2027 conditional on Japan saying it would not intervene to be 11.5%, and 22% conditional on Trump or the Defense Secretary saying the US would not intervene.
In the Middle East, the Houthis continue to attack Israel, and Israel responded today with strikes on a Houthi-controlled port in Yemen. Israel also intervened in Syria following renewed sectarian violence between Druze and Sunni Bedouin groups, later reaching a ceasefire deal with the Syrian government.
OpenAI launched ChatGPT Agent and [...]

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Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(01:32) Geopolitics
(01:35) Asia-Pacific
(03:43) Middle East
(05:47) Europe
(06:52) United States
(08:20) Africa
(08:30) Technology
(14:21) Biorisk
(14:40) Economy

---

First published:
July 21st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/taiwan-defense-rehearsals-israel

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Houthis sink ships, US tariffs for US allies and secondary tariff threats for Russia, Grok and Kimi model releases | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 18:07:43 GMT

The Houthis sank two ships last week, new powerful open source model released.

Executive summary
The Houthis sank two ships last week, and forecasters estimated the following:

Will the Houthis sink at least two ships by August 15? 51% (40% to 60%)

Will the US attack the Houthis in the next 30 days? 26.5% (20% to 36%)

By the end of August, will the US lower the copper tariff from the promised August 1 rate of 50% to 25% or less? 61% (45% to 70%)
xAI released Grok 4, and a Chinese lab, Moonshot AI, released a powerful open-source model, Kimi K2, with 1T parameters.
Trump announced another volley of tariff threats unless deals are reached by August 1.
[...]

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Outline:
(00:29) Executive summary
(01:42) Geopolitics
(01:45) Middle East
(03:18) Iran
(04:03) Europe
(05:52) United States
(07:01) Asia
(07:48) Africa
(08:02) Economy
(09:12) AI and Technology
(12:34) Biorisks
(13:10) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
July 14th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/houthis-sink-ships-us-tariffs-for

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟢 Big Beautiful Bill passed in the US, Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine, Musk announced new America Party | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2025.” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 07 Jul 2025 17:59:46 GMT

Executive summary
A major budget reconciliation bill (the “Big Beautiful Bill”) passed in the US and was signed into law—it's massive and might have impacts for your industry. In response, Musk announced the creation of a new “America Party”. Geopolitical conflicts did not flare up.
This week, forecasters produced estimates on four questions:

Will there be a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that begins within the next 30 days and holds for at least a week? 44% (35% to 55%)

WIll Israel and Hamas still be fighting at the end of the year? 64% (45% to 77%)

Will a ban or moratorium on states regulating AI be part of federal law by 2027? 17% (10% to 35%)

What's the [...]

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Outline:
(00:17) Executive summary
(01:24) Geopolitics
(01:27) Middle East
(05:05) United States
(06:33) Europe
(08:38) Asia
(09:17) Africa
(10:02) Economy
(10:53) Artificial Intelligence
(13:19) Climate

---

First published:
July 7th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/big-beautiful-bill-passed-in-the

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2025:” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 18:29:10 GMT

Iran, NATO increased spending, video addictions.

Executive summary
After US airstrikes damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, a ceasefire between Iran and Israel has so far largely held. Iran did not close the Strait of Hormuz. Khamenei and the Islamic Republic remain in power; Khamenei is still in hiding and may not be well. Iranian officials have expressed their intent to resume the country's nuclear program, which is a sticking point for potential future negotiations with the US.
Forecasters estimate an 8% (5% to 30%) chance of regime change in Iran by the end of August, and a 19% (10% to 70%) chance by the end of the year. On whether Khamenei specifically will officially be in power, their estimates are 85% (65% to 92%) [...]

---
Outline:
(00:15) Executive summary
(01:59) Geopolitics
(02:02) Middle East
(02:05) Iran
(08:44) Gaza
(09:44) United States
(09:47) Legal
(10:37) Tariffs and trade
(13:03) Europe
(14:07) Asia
(14:31) Africa
(14:49) AI and Technology
(18:12) Biorisks
(19:21) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
June 30th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-262025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

″🟢 US bombs Iran, India again rejects water treaty | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, scott eastmanphoto.com, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 15:48:41 GMT

Executive summary
The US attacked three nuclear sites in Iran, likely setting back their nuclear program by by years, but the locations and future of Iran's nuclear stockpile remain unknown.
A weakened Iran will likely respond meekly, although forecasters now deem it more likely than not that Iran will attack a US base in the region. A nuclear detonation in the Middle East is extremely unlikely.
Trump suggested that regime change could “Make Iran Great Again”.
India continues to oppose the key Indus Waters Treaty that it had previously agreed with Pakistan.
Anthropic continued its research into blackmail by AI models.
Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-bombs-iran-india-again-rejects

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″🟡 Israel attacks Iran, US protests continue, China deploys 2 aircraft carriers in Pacific | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2025″ by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 16 Jun 2025 18:50:10 GMT

and, the Gentle Singularity.

Executive summary

Israel attacked Iran's nuclear weapons program and military leadership - Israel and Iran are now at war

Anti-ICE and No Kings protests took place in over 2,100 locations in the US and remained largely peaceful

Trump steps up deportation plans, backs down from targeting agricultural, hotel and restaurant workers

China simultaneously deployed two aircraft carriers in the Pacific

The US seeks a peace deal in the Rwanda-Congo conflict by July

Sam Altman writes about the “Gentle singularity”

The bird flu virus strain that infected a Michigan dairy farmer is capable of airborne transmission
Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/israel-attacks-iran-us-protests-continue

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 00:00:00 GMT

until midnight NYC time.

This article was collaboratively written by: Nuño Sempere, Brian Yu, Kati Conen, Alex Lyzhov, Jaeho Lee and 30+ other contributors. Those of us who are in the US are going to sleep, but the document continues being available and freely editable here, and by the time US readers wake up many new developments may have arisen.
Last week, the IAEA found Iran in non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The previous day saw an escalation of tensions and a breakdown of dialogue around the nuclear programme.
Today, Israel struck Iran, with known sites being Tabriz, Tehran, Natanz, Kermanshah, Arak, Isfahan, Sanandaj, Ilam, Ahvaz (provincial capital of Khuzestan, Iran's oil-producing province), Chazabeh border crossing in Khuzestan. Israel has aimed for both Iran's nuclear program and its leadership.
Although this is a greatly escalatory step, our sense is that this will play out over [...]

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Outline:
(02:43) Likely developments
(08:02) Markets and Prediction Markets
(09:41) Live questions
(13:49) Worst-case scenarios
(16:15) International Reactions
(17:45) Possible actions
(18:32) What are some good signals that were right/are useful to look at
(19:26) License for this doc: MIT.

---

First published:
June 13th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/making-sense-of-israels-strike-on

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles, Russia intensified conventional attacks on Ukraine, US-Iran nuclear talks continue | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 09 Jun 2025 18:39:58 GMT

Executive summary
Trump federalized National Guard troops and ordered them to be deployed to Los Angeles amid anti-deportation protests, against the California governor's wishes. Federal officials are calling the protests an insurrection, setting the stage for the possibility that the Insurrection Act may be invoked, which would allow the military to be used for law enforcement within the US. Forecasters estimate that there is a 40% (range: 25% to 65%) chance that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act in the next two months.
Our forecasting team updated their estimates of the probability that Russia would use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine by July 1st. Last week we forecasted a 0.4% chance for this possibility; we now estimate a ~0.04% chance (range: 0.02% to [...]

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Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(02:20) Geopolitics
(02:22) United States
(12:06) Europe
(12:41) Ukraine
(15:10) Greenland
(15:50) Middle East
(17:19) Asia
(17:35) Africa
(18:00) Economy
(20:56) Artificial Intelligence and Technology
(23:54) Biorisks
(26:53) Climate and Nature

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First published:
June 9th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-sent-the-national-guard-to

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Ukraine drones destroy 41 Russian planes, proposed taxes on foreign investment, uranium enrichment continues in Iran | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 02 Jun 2025 16:31:59 GMT

Executive summary
On Sunday, Ukraine carried out a drone attack on five Russian military airbases, destroying 41 military planes, including strategic bombers. The attack took 18 months to plan and execute, and some Russian military bloggers are calling it “Russia's Pearl Harbor.”
The budget bill passed by the US House contains a provision that would allow the federal government to increase taxes on foreign investments, which would make refinancing US debt more expensive. The Trump administration halted all student visa applications and moved to revoke the visas of all Chinese students. A US federal judge granted DOGE access to a major Treasury payment system.
The IAEA found that Iran has been enriching uranium rapidly. Talks between the US and Iran over Iran's nuclear program [...]

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Outline:
(00:18) Executive summary
(02:01) Economy
(04:02) Geopolitics
(04:04) Europe
(07:49) United States
(10:54) Middle East
(13:18) Gaza
(14:01) Yemen
(14:25) Asia
(14:28) East Asia
(15:00) India/Pakistan
(15:27) Biorisks
(16:45) AI and Technology

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First published:
June 2nd, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-drones-destroy-41-russian

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Iran nuclear talks survive, Claude 4 release, trade tensions reignite | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 26 May 2025 15:51:45 GMT

...and the short term-chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan this year and the next.

Executive summary
The fifth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded with no agreement, but the two sides agreed to meet again. US intelligence suggests that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear sites, with or without Trump's blessing, if the talks break down. Forecasters estimate a 22% chance of a US and/or Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites by the end of August.
Anthropic released their latest and most powerful AI model, Claude 4, and activated their ASL-3 safety protections for the first time. Pre-release testing revealed some worrying but rare tendencies, while users have already started to jailbreak the model.
Trump threatened to impose tariffs [...]

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Outline:
(00:24) Executive summary
(01:25) Geopolitics
(01:28) Middle East
(04:22) Asia-Pacific
(06:10) Europe
(08:46) United States
(09:56) Africa
(10:05) Technology
(13:21) Global economy

---

First published:
May 26th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/iran-nuclear-talks-survive-claude

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: US credit rating downgraded, $1T in Gulf state investments in the US, Kurdistan Workers’ Party disbanded.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 19 May 2025 17:23:49 GMT

Executive summary
Moody's downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.
Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of [...]

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Outline:
(00:21) Executive summary
(04:16) Geopolitics
(04:19) United States
(06:06) Europe
(08:27) Asia
(09:23) Middle East
(11:17) Gaza
(12:22) Turkey
(13:24) Africa
(13:44) AI and Technology
(20:38) Biorisks
(22:01) Climate

---

First published:
May 19th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-202025-df7

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: India/Pakistan ceasefire, US/China tariffs deal & OpenAI nonprofit control” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 12 May 2025 16:59:57 GMT

Executive summary

India and Pakistan have agreed to a ceasefire, and despite initial breaches, it now seems to be holding.

The Trump administration and China agreed to reduce tariffs for 90 days while talks continue. Markets rejoiced.

The Trump administration continues to look into ending due process for immigrants to be deported and is making arrangements to deport undocumented immigrants to many countries around the world.

Israel is set to start a major operation in Gaza soon.

The nonprofit OpenAI will retain control of the for-profit arm after restructuring.
Global Economy
After talks [...]

---
Outline:
(00:17) Executive summary
(00:58) Global Economy
(05:14) Geopolitics
(05:17) India/Pakistan
(08:07) United States
(13:13) Europe
(15:17) Middle East
(16:39) Gaza
(18:47) Syria
(18:54) Yemen
(19:50) Iran
(20:31) Africa
(21:07) Biorisk
(22:11) AI
(25:49) Climate and Nature

---

First published:
May 12th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-202025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2025: US tariff shortages, military policing, Gaza famine.” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 05 May 2025 15:24:32 GMT

Executive summary

Shortages of some goods expected in the US starting later this month, because of tariffs.

The power outage on the Iberian Peninsula was the worst in Europe since 2003, and Europe may have been close to a more widespread blackout.

Trump wants to involve the military in policing within the US.

Negotiations between the US and Iran over its nuclear weapons program have stalled.

Microsoft will host xAI's Grok model in its cloud service, in a move to reduce Microsoft's dependency on OpenAI.

Gaza is running out of food, and the UN warns of famine.

India-Pakistan tensions remain high.
Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-182025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2025: India-Pakistan standoff, Iran and Ukraine talks, AI time horizons” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 14:39:56 GMT

Executive summary
After a terrorist attack in Kashmir left 26 dead, relations between India and Pakistan sharply deteriorated, culminating in the exchange of fire across the border between the two countries. Forecasters examined the possibility of escalation.
The third round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran concluded. On the same day, a blast at Iran's Bandar Abbas port left hundreds injured, while Trump had a positive face-to-face meeting with President Zelensky in the Vatican City following another rocky week for US-Ukraine relations.
OpenAI's new models suggest that the length of tasks that AIs can do is now doubling roughly every four months.
Geopoliticshttps://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-172025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2025: Trade disruptions, US hacks China Winter Games, OpenAI not testing finetuned models.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 19:49:30 GMT

Also Iran nuclear talks, dollar falling, trade disruptions.

Executive summary
Fallout from Trump's tariffs continues: trade patterns are shifting, Trump is feuding with the Chair of the Federal Reserve, the dollar is falling relative to other currencies, and US imports and exports are plummeting, as are manufacturing indicators in the US.
The Trump administration continues to clash with the judicial branch about deportations without due process. The Supreme Court halted another round of deportations to the jail in El Salvador. You can read our brief on this topic here. Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far.
The US and Iran have concluded two rounds of nuclear talks and a third is [...]

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Outline:
(00:26) Executive summary
(01:25) Economy
(04:54) AI and Technology
(04:58) OpenAI
(06:59) Other AI news
(08:13) Other Technology
(08:23) Bio
(10:40) Geopolitics
(10:43) United States
(14:29) Asia
(16:21) Africa
(17:25) Middle East
(18:00) Iran
(18:44) Gaza
(19:04) Yemen
(19:40) Weird

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First published:
April 21st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-162025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“The US Executive vs Supreme Court Deportations Clash” by Nuño Sempere

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 18:51:37 GMT

Forecaster perspectives
Sentinel forecasters in aggregate assess as “83% true” (65% to 100%) the statement that the Trump administration has disobeyed the Supreme Court so far. On the one hand, the Trump administration has done nothing to “facilitate” bringing Abrego García back to the US, and the White House's tweet shown above clearly indicates that it won’t try to; on the other hand, it could yet still do so when the current news cycle subsides. On April 17th, forecasters estimated a 66% chance (50% to ~100%) that Abrego García will not be brought back to the US within the next 60 days (by June 17).
Our forecasters estimate a 14% (range, 10% to 25%) probability that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act by July [...]

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Outline:
(00:11) Forecaster perspectives
(03:19) Summary of events
(03:34) The Abrego García US Supreme Court case.
(05:45) Developments since the Abrego García Supreme Court case
(08:16) Next steps for the court case
(09:45) Plans for further deportations
(11:38) The Insurrection Act
(12:58) Implications and recommendations

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First published:
April 21st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/the-us-executive-vs-supreme-court

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2025: Tariff yoyo, OpenAI slashing safety testing, Iran nuclear programme negotiations, 1K H5N1 confirmed herd infections.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 17:30:14 GMT

Executive summary
The Trump administration backtracked from his tariff plan, reducing tariffs from most countries to 10%, but imposing tariffs of 145% on China, which answered with 125% tariffs on US imports and export controls on rare earth metals.
The US saw protests against Trump and DOGE, and the US Supreme court ruled that the administration must facilitate the return of an immigrant wrongly deported to El Salvador.
OpenAI is slashing the amount of safety testing they will do of their new AI models, from months down to days, and Google launched a new AI chip for inference.
Negotiations between the US and Iran on its nuclear program are starting, reducing our estimated probability of a US strike to 15%.
The number of US [...]

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Outline:
(00:23) Executive summary
(01:22) Economy
(04:26) Tech and AI
(05:57) Geopolitics
(05:59) Middle East
(06:02) Iran
(08:09) Gaza
(08:26) Yemen
(08:59) Africa
(09:20) Americas
(13:10) Asia
(14:33) Europe
(16:10) Biorisk

---

First published:
April 14th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-152025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2025: Chinese military exercises, French 2027 election front-runner banned, stock market fall” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Executive summary
China carried out more aggressive live-fire military exercises around Taiwan. The US relocated missile batteries from the Pacific into the Middle East, raising some concerns that it was leaving the Pacific region vulnerable.
Le Pen, the frontrunner for the 2027 French elections, was barred from running in those elections after being found guilty of embezzlement.
Global stock markets have been falling sharply since Trump announced new tariffs on April 2; these new tariffs are larger than those imposed by the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. Crude oil prices have been falling as well, in another sign of economic weakening. Sentinel forecasters estimate that there is a 63% chance of a global recession this year.
Meta started releasing distilled models from their Llama [...]

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Outline:
(01:15) Global Economy
(04:09) Geopolitics
(04:11) US
(07:44) Europe
(09:03) Middle East
(10:48) Asia
(11:49) Africa
(12:20) Biorisk
(12:37) Artificial Intelligence

---

First published:
April 7th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-142025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2025: Bombing Iran, Turkey protests, mpox vaning.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Executive summary
Tensions between the US and Iran continued, as Iran replied to Trump's letter demanding that a new nuclear agreement be reached, and the US directed more military assets to positions near Iran. Last week, we estimated that there is a 1 in 3 chance that the US will strike Iran by the end of April, but have since lowered our estimate a bit.
There are large-scale demonstrations in Turkey, although our forecasters assign only a ~4% chance that Erdoğan will be out of power by the end of the year.
Food is running out in Gaza as Israel's blockade continues, and some demonstrators protested against Hamas.
The Chinese state and media appear to be emphasizing more anti-Taiwan-independence sentiment, in a way reminiscent [...]

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Outline:
(01:24) Geopolitics
(01:27) Middle East
(01:52) 1 in 3 chance that US will strike Iran by end of April
(04:50) Europe
(06:54) Asia-Pacific
(08:01) The Americas
(10:08) Africa
(10:49) Tech
(12:54) Biorisks
(13:40) Global economy

---

First published:
March 31st, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/global-risks-weekly-roundup-132025

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“1 in 3 chance that US will strike Iran by end of April” by belikewater, Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Sentinel forecasters jointly estimate that there is a 36% chance (range, 25%-60%) that the US will launch airstrikes against nuclear weapons program facilities in Iran by the end of April, starting most likely between April 10 and April 25 and ending likely before May 1.
The US military is bringing approximately six B-2 stealth bombers to a joint US-UK military base on Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean that is well-positioned for staging attacks on either Yemen or Iran. The B-2 bomber is one of the only US military aircraft capable of carrying the GBU-57A/B MOP, the largest of the US "bunker buster" bombs that can penetrate fortified underground facilities; it can also drop a wide range of other bombs, including smaller bunker busters. In addition, three C-17 cargo aircraft have flown to Diego Garcia to support the B-2s, and one to support KC-135 Stratotankers that refuel [...]

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First published:
March 27th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/1-in-3-chance-of-us-to-strike-iran

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″[Andrew Dragon] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 15:07:47 GMT

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50
Forecaster Estimates
Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.
Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=andrew_dragon

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″[Andrew] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 15:06:21 GMT

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50
Forecaster Estimates
Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.
Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:
(00:51) Forecaster Estimates
(01:56) Geopolitics
(01:59) United States
(04:32) Europe
(06:00) Middle East
(08:16) Africa
(08:57) Asia
(10:26) Biorisk
(10:39) Tech and AI
(13:39) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=andrew

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2025: Famine in Gaza, H7N9 outbreak, US geopolitical leadership weakening.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 00:00:00 GMT

Status: Greenish 🟢

Executive summary
Forecasters believe there's an 18% chance (range: 4%-50%) that there will be a famine in any part of Gaza by the end of 2025, according to the UN and its Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC). A Category 5 rating would result in a positive resolution, with the last IPC update suggesting that all of Gaza was in Category 4.
As the US is becoming a less reliable geopolitical ally, countries from France to South Korea are making their own moves. The UK Government hosted military leaders in London to plan for a possible deployment of troops to Ukraine, with the French President saying that Russia's permission is not needed for this. On whether there will be a [...]

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Outline:
(00:24) Executive summary
(02:25) Long tail of events
(02:35) Biorisks
(06:13) Geopolitics
(06:17) Middle East
(07:16) Europe
(09:33) Asia-Pacific
(10:00) The Americas
(12:23) Tech

---

First published:
March 24th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup-79e

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″[Ryan] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 10:25:59 GMT

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50
Forecaster Estimates
Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.
Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:
(00:52) Forecaster Estimates
(01:54) Geopolitics
(01:57) United States
(04:27) Europe
(05:52) Middle East
(08:01) Africa
(08:40) Asia
(10:10) Biorisk
(10:24) Tech and AI
(13:25) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=ryan

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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″[Ava] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Fri, 21 Mar 2025 10:20:39 GMT

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50
Forecaster Estimates
Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket's forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.
Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:
(00:53) Forecaster Estimates
(02:01) Geopolitics
(02:04) United States
(04:47) Europe
(06:19) Middle East
(08:34) Africa
(09:17) Asia
(10:52) Biorisk
(11:08) Tech and AI
(14:26) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup?voice=ava

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Sentinel minutes #10/2025: Trump tariffs, US/China tensions, Claude code reward hacking.” by Nuño Sempere

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 16:42:15 GMT

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

Market uncertainty and political turmoil over Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

Increasing US-China tensions

Anthropic’s Claude Code displays reward-hacking tendencies.
Forecaster Estimates
Taiwan has been a hot topic in the last week as China ramps up their military exercises. On the question of whether China would attempt to invade Taiwan by 2030, forecasters estimated a 43% chance of this occurring (range: 20% to 70%).
There has been significant speculation online over whether OpenAI has lost its edge. Our estimates on which AI company currently has the most capable general-purpose AI model internally are:

P(OpenAI is in the lead) = 40%

P(Google DeepMind is in the lead) = [...]

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Outline:
(00:35) Forecaster Estimates
(01:34) Geopolitics
(01:37) United States
(05:54) Canada
(06:07) Europe
(09:00) Middle East
(10:02) Africa
(10:28) Asia
(13:13) Biorisk
(14:35) Artificial Intelligence
(19:39) Miscellanea

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First published:
March 10th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinel-minutes-102025-trump-tariffs

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 16:42:13 GMT

Sentinel status: Greenish 🟢

Top items:

Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelans and the Tren de Aragua gang. He subsequently deported 238 alleged members to El Salvador, ignoring a court order.

Chinese “invasion barges” were deployed in an exercise.

The US resumed military aid to Ukraine, and a ceasefire in the next six months at 50/50
Forecaster Estimates
Forecasters, on aggregate, think that a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine in the next six months is a coin toss (48%, ranging from 35% to 70%). Polymarket’s forecast is higher, at 61%, for a ceasefire of any duration by July.
Forecasters also consider it a coin toss (aggregate of 49%; ranging from 28% to 70%) whether an agreement to expand [...]

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Outline:
(00:50) Forecaster Estimates
(01:56) Geopolitics
(01:58) United States
(04:36) Europe
(06:07) Middle East
(08:19) Africa
(09:00) Asia
(10:32) Biorisk
(10:47) Tech and AI
(13:40) Climate

---

First published:
March 17th, 2025

Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/sentinels-global-risks-weekly-roundup

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Sentinel Minutes

″🟡 US seizes Iranian cargo ship, Iran-US peace talks uncertain, cyberattack estimates || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2026″ by Nuño Sempere

″🟡 US to blockade Iranian ports, Iran peace talks end without agreement, Anthropic Mythos released to tech and cyber firms || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 Trump threatens Iranian power and desalination plants, aviators from downed F-15E rescued, Claude Code leak, updated ASI timelines || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 Iranian steel and nuclear plants bombed, Houthi attacks begin, AI solves open problem in mathematics || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 Oil and gas facilities attacked in the Middle East, another US Marine unit deploying to the Middle East, desalination plants threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 Trump threatens NATO, US bombs Kharg Island in Iran, US Marine unit deploying to Middle East || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 Iran War continues, Strait of Hormuz remains closed, sharp drop in Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan, Alibaba AI agent mystery || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #10/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 US and Israel strike Iran, Iran retaliates against US allies, Anthropic designated a supply chain risk || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #9/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 US buildup in Middle East continues, Russian vessel en route to Cuba, AI time horizons lengthen | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #8/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 US sends second aircraft carrier to Middle East, European nuclear deterrent discussed, pandemic preparedness deprioritized at NIAID | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #7/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Anthropic and OpenAI release new models, US-Iran talks continue, illegal biolab in the US, nuclear arms treaty expires | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #6/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 AI social network Moltbook grows, US-Iran tensions simmer, Nipah pandemic unlikely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #5/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Trump walks back Greenland threats, US sends warships to the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #4/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟨 “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace”, “that’d be pretty morally bankrupt. and he’s really not an idiot” || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #3/2026” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Trump administration mulls strikes on Iran and says the US will own Greenland, DOJ launches investigation into Fed Chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #2/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 US attacks Venezuela and captures Maduro, threatens Iran, Mexico, Colombia and Denmark || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #1/2026″ by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur, belikewater

″🟩 Forecasts for drone attacks and AI time horizons; China holds military drills around Taiwan and imposes sanctions on US arms manufacturers || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #52/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 AI unemployment and IPOs in 2026, EU funds Ukraine from its own pockets, US seizes Chinese-owned tanker || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #51/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩EU freezes Russian assets, US and Iran seize oil tankers, Trump restricts AI regulation || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #50/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩US signals diminished role in NATO, Russia-Ukraine talks falter, Hassett likely to become next Fed chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #49/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Airspace closed over Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine talks continue, DeepSeek reaches gold IMO level || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #48/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Ukraine peace plan, US continues activity around Venezuela, state AI regulation moratorium round 2 || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #47/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Rising China-Japan tensions, Iran seizes oil tanker, AI-directed cyberattacks disrupted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #46/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Iran drought warning, rebels agree to Sudan ceasefire, Trump tariffs threatened || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #45/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Trump threatens to send troops to Nigeria and denies Venezuela attack plans, China-US trade détente || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #44/2025″ by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

″🟩 Aircraft carrier ordered to the Venezuelan coast, chance of Trump 3rd term, bird flu spreading with fall migration || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #43/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, belikewater

″🟢 CIA authorized to operate in Venezuela, Trump walks back China tariff threat, Budapest to host US-Russia meeting on Ukraine || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #42/2025.” by Nuño Sempere

″🟢 Gaza ceasefire agreed, Trump threatens 100% tariffs on China, OpenAI subpoena controversy || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #41/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

“California AI bill passed, Trump tries to send National Guard to Portland, US economy warning signs | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #40/2025” by Nuño Sempere

“EU may shoot down Russian jets next time, US gov shutdown, no global AI red lines | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #39/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 US comedian’s show suspended after government pressure, Russian jets flew over Estonia, open-source AIs designed new genome variants || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #38/2025″ by Nuño Sempere

″🟢 Russian drones shot down over Poland, Israel strikes Qatar, Trump ally assassinated | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #37/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

“Possible postwar Ukraine security guarantees ready, chikungunya outbreak grows in China, weak jobs numbers suggest Fed rate cut likely || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #36/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Houthi PM and cabinet killed, RFK Jr. fires CDC director, Trump fires Federal Reserve Governor, $200M pro-AI lobbying group launched || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #35/2025.” by Nuño Sempere

“UN famine declaration, US moving 2.2K marines off the coast of Venezuela, DeepSeek V3.1 released || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #34/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, anpaure

“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, ​FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, ​FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Israel preparing to take over Gaza City, ceasefire in Ukraine unlikely to happen soon, Trump deploying National Guard in DC, GPT-5 released | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #32/2025” by Nuño Sempere

“Gaza hunger, US GDP growth driven by AI capex, US fires labor statistics commissioner | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #31/2025” by Nuño Sempere

″🟢 Thailand v. Cambodia clashes erupted and resolved, White House AI Action Plan released, Anthropic faces billion-dollar lawsuit | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #30/2025″ by Nuño Sempere

″🟢 Taiwan defense rehearsals, Israel-Syria ceasefire, IMO Gold at OpenAI | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #29/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com

“Houthis sink ships, US tariffs for US allies and secondary tariff threats for Russia, Grok and Kimi model releases | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #28/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge, scott eastmanphoto.com

″🟢 Big Beautiful Bill passed in the US, Russia using chemical weapons in Ukraine, Musk announced new America Party | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #27/2025.” by Nuño Sempere

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #26/2025:” by Nuño Sempere

″🟢 US bombs Iran, India again rejects water treaty | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #25/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, scott eastmanphoto.com, Tolga Bilge

″🟡 Israel attacks Iran, US protests continue, China deploys 2 aircraft carriers in Pacific | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #24/2025″ by Nuño Sempere

“Making sense of Israel’s strikes on Iran” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater

“Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles, Russia intensified conventional attacks on Ukraine, US-Iran nuclear talks continue | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #23/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur

“Ukraine drones destroy 41 Russian planes, proposed taxes on foreign investment, uranium enrichment continues in Iran | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025” by Nuño Sempere

“Iran nuclear talks survive, Claude 4 release, trade tensions reignite | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #21/2025.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: US credit rating downgraded, $1T in Gulf state investments in the US, Kurdistan Workers’ Party disbanded.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #20/2025: India/Pakistan ceasefire, US/China tariffs deal & OpenAI nonprofit control” by Nuño Sempere

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #18/2025: US tariff shortages, military policing, Gaza famine.” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #17/2025: India-Pakistan standoff, Iran and Ukraine talks, AI time horizons” by Nuño Sempere

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #16/2025: Trade disruptions, US hacks China Winter Games, OpenAI not testing finetuned models.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

“The US Executive vs Supreme Court Deportations Clash” by Nuño Sempere

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #15/2025: Tariff yoyo, OpenAI slashing safety testing, Iran nuclear programme negotiations, 1K H5N1 confirmed herd infections.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #14/2025: Chinese military exercises, French 2027 election front-runner banned, stock market fall” by Nuño Sempere, Tolga Bilge, belikewater, Vidur Kapur

“Global Risks Weekly Roundup #13/2025: Bombing Iran, Turkey protests, mpox vaning.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“1 in 3 chance that US will strike Iran by end of April” by belikewater, Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur

″[Andrew Dragon] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

″[Andrew] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #12/2025: Famine in Gaza, H7N9 outbreak, US geopolitical leadership weakening.” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge

″[Ryan] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

″[Ava] Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Sentinel minutes #10/2025: Trump tariffs, US/China tensions, Claude code reward hacking.” by Nuño Sempere

“Sentinel’s Global Risks Weekly Roundup #11/2025. Trump invokes Alien Enemies Act, Chinese invasion barges deployed in exercise.” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur

“Trump-Putin talks end with no ceasefire, Meta allowed AI chatbots to flirt with children, FARC spinout drone attacks | Global Risks Weekly Roundup #33/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Tolga Bilge, Vidur Kapur